USGS scientists and field teams are working cooperatively with the Department of Environmental Quality in the James, Rappahannock, Roanoke, and Shenandoah River basins. The teams are measuring flooding and high water-levels in the rivers, and collecting water-quality samples.
Hurricane Fran has brought heavy rain and flooding in the central and western parts of Virginia. A major area of heavy rains and flooding has centered in the Shenandoah River basin. Many of the rivers exceeded a 100-year return frequency and resulted in a new maximum peak for the period of record. Some exceeded flows of the November 1985 storm, and even one river, the North Fork at Mount Jackson, exceeded flows in 1972 during Hurricane Agnes. Specifically, the North Fork at Mount Jackson peaked at 2245 on September 6 at 21.5 feet, representing a streamflow of about 100,000 cubic feet per second and more than a 100-year return frequency. Previous maximum was 18.10 feet in 1972 during Hurricane Agnes, representing about 50,000 cubic feet per second. The North Fork at Cootes Store peaked at 28.00 feet, representing more than a 100-year return frequency. This exceeds the maximum for the period of record, which was 25.0 feet in 1942. The South Fork River at Linwood peaked at 0330 on September 7 at 30.8 feet, representing 105,000 cubic feet per second and more than a 100-year return frequency. Previous maximum was 29.46 feet in November 1985. The South Fork River at Luray peaked at 1645 on September 7 at 33.3 feet, representing about 150,000 cubic feet per second and more than a 100-year return frequency. Previous maximum was in November 1985 at 26.72 feet. The South Fork at Front Royal peaked at 2330 on September 7 at 32.57 feet, representing about 120,000 to 125,000 cubic feet per second and an 80-year return frequency. This level approached the maximum for the period of record, which was 34.8 feet in 1942. The Middle River at Grottoes, peaked on September 6 at 35.2 feet, representing about 45,000 cubic feet per second and more than a 100-year return frequency. This is also a new maximum for the period of record at this site; previous peak was in 1985 at 33.09 feet.
The lower part of the Roanoke River basin also was hit hard. The Dan River at South Boston peaked at 0430 on September 7 at 33.22 feet. This exceeded the highest ever recorded, which was 31.80 feet in 1940. Return frequency can not be estimated for this site; only stage (no discharge) is recorded. Flows were not quite as dramatic in the middle parts of the basin. For example, the Dan River at Paces peaked at 1600 on September 7 at 31.43 feet, representing a streamflow of 56,500 cubic feet per second and a 65-year return frequency. This did not exceed the highest recorded stage, which was 33.15 feet in 1972 during Hurricane Agnes. The Roanoke at Brookneal peaked on September 7 at 39.67 feet, representing a flow of 85,200 cubic feet per second and a 40-year return frequency. Maximum recorded level for the period of record was 46.50 feet in 1940. The Roanoke at Randolph peaked at 2300 on September 7 at 34.92 feet, representing a streamflow of 89,200 cubic feet per second and a 30-year return frequency. This level approached the maximum of 35.0 feet in 1901. Most of the sites in the upper parts of the Roanoke River basin were less than a 10-year return frequency.
Minimal rises were observed in the New River basin. See September 7 updates (below) for reports on the James and Rappahannock River basins, and other sites in the Roanoke and Shenandoah River basins.
September 7, 1996 -- Updated at 2000
Many of the rivers in the basins have peaked today. Some peaked at levels less than predicted in the early phases of the storm. Dan River at Danville peaked at 28.52 feet just after midnight on September 7. The flow represented about a 40-year return frequency. The James River at Cartersville peaked Saturday evening around 1800 at 29.02 feet, representing a streamflow rate of 158,500 cubic feet per second and an 18-year return frequency. The James River at Scottsville peaked around 2 AM on Saturday at 28.24 feet, representing a 25-year return frequency.
Impacts from Fran in the Shenandoah River basin were more dramatic. The North Fork Shenandoah peaked on Saturday at 28 feet, representing greater than a 100-year return frequency. The North Fork near Strasburg peaked at about 1300 on Saturday at 32.27 feet, also representing greater than a 100-year return frequency. The South Fork Shenandoah is predicted to peak in the late evening on Saturday at 35.37, which also represents greater than a 100-year flood.
September 6, 1996 -- Updated at 2000
Flows in the Dan River near Danville may exceed those ever recorded (the maximum for the period of record is about 21.5 feet, representing a streamflow rate of about 80,000 cubic feet per second). The flood peak is anticipated on Saturday morning, September 7, at about 24 feet (about a 100-year return frequency). The flood peak at the Dan River at Paces is anticipated on Saturday evening, at about 34 feet (representing about 110,000 cubic feet per second and about a 100-year return frequency). Flows in the upper parts of the Dan River and upper parts of the Roanoke River basin (such as the Roanoke River at Altavista) show less than a 10-year return frequency.
Rains were locally scattered throughout the headwaters of the James River basin and, therefore, streamflows in the upper parts of the James River basin show little rise. Flows will be major in parts of the middle to lower James River basin. For example, the flood peak on the James River at Cartersville is expected late Saturday between 32 to 34 feet, representing a streamflow rate between 213,000 and 255,800 cubic feet per second. The projected return frequency ranges between 45 and 90 years.
Estimates of other flood peaks in the James River Basin:
James at Scottsville; Peak at Sept. 7 AM; 30 feet; 200,000 cfs; 50-year
James at Holcombs Rock; Peak at Sept. 7 AM; 30 feet; 109,000 cfs; 25-year
James nr Richmond; Peak at Sept. 8 AM; 24-26 feet
Maury River nr Buena Vista; Peak at Sept. 6 PM; 20-21 feet; 35,000 to 40,000 cfs; 50-60 year
Appomattax at Farmville; Peak at Sept. 6 PM; 23-25 feet; 15,800 to 20,100 cfs; 25-40 year
Appomattax at Mattoax; Peak at Sept. 7 AM; 23-24 feet; 7,000 to 8,220 cfs; 75-year
Appomattax at Matoaca; Peak at Sept. 8 AM; 15-16 feet; 24,000 to 29,000 cfs; 25-year
Local flash flooding occurred throughout the central part of the state in the Rappahannock River basin. Flows in the larger rivers are representing about a 10 to 25-year return frequency.
Rappahannock at Remington; Estimate peak at Sept. 7 AM; 20-22 feet; 27,500 to 36,800 cfs; 10-20 year
Rapidan at Culpeper; Estimate peak at Sept. 7 AM; 23-25 feet; 29,700 to 36,500 cfs; 25 year
Flooding in the coastal regions of the Rappahannock River basin occurred in the late morning of September 6 because of storm surge and tidal effects; the Rappahannock River overflowed its banks about 3 miles from the Town of Tappahannock.
Streamflows are rising in the Shenandoah River basin. Stage measured on the South Fork Shenandoah at Front Royal at 1400 was 9.33 feet (less than a 5-year return frequency). Peak flow is expected late Saturday, at about 24 to 26 feet (representing a streamflow of about 75,000 to 85,000 cubic feet per second), which is a 20 to 30-year return frequency. The North Fork Shenandoah near Strasburg is expected to crest Saturday morning at about 24 feet (representing a streamflow rate of 38,800 cubic feet per second), which is about a 25-year return frequency.
Information at some locations is limited because of accessibility problems from downed trees, washed out roads, and local flash flooding. More than 179 secondary roads and 9 primary roads were closed at 1:00 p.m. because of high water and debris.
A comprehensive assessment of flooding will be provided when all data are collected and analyzed. For more USGS water information, check the USGS home page on the Internet at URL http://www.usgs.gov.
(For additional information, contact Pixie Hamilton, District Chief (804-278-4750, ext. 227) or Roger White, Chief of Hydrologic Network Operations (804-278-4750.)
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Last modified: 05/23/01 09:55:04 AM