Drought Watch

DROUGHT MONITORING TASK FORCE
Drought Status Report
December 7, 2001

The Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force held a conference call on December 6, 2001 to discuss the current moisture conditions in the Commonwealth. The Department of Environmental Quality compiled the following report from information provided by the State Climatologist, the Virginia Departments of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Health, Forestry, Emergency Services, Game and Inland Fisheries; the Virginia Cooperative Extension Service, Farm Service Agency-USDA, the National Weather Service, and the U. S. Geological Survey.

REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

A strong and persistent high pressure system has been in place since the middle part of October preventing significant moisture from moving northeast over the state of Virginia from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, cold fronts crossing the region have been moisture starved and producing little or no precipitation. This trend is expected to continue as another semi-dry cold front crosses the state on 12/7 - 12/8. This is only expected to produce a few hundredths of an inch at best as the front becomes more parallel to the east to west upper flow. The front will likely stall near the Virginia and North Carolina border and a weak disturbance will move along the front but again expected to produce little as most of the rainfall will be near the southeastern portion of the state. After this one-shot rain, high pressure will once again take over and usher in cooler and drier air 12/9 - 12/10 and a moderation of temperatures through 12/13. At any rate, there are no indications that the long-wave weather pattern will change over the next 7-10 days.

The 30-day outlook generally calls for normal temperatures and normal precipitation. The 90-day outlook calls for normal temperatures and precipitation.

Note: The latest Drought Monitor (dated December 4, 2001) is attached to this report.

REPORT OF THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST- December 7, 2001

In general, Virginia dryness has increased at a moderate pace since the last report of the Drought Task Force. Recent shortfalls in rain have become even larger, and much above-normal temperatures have increased evaporation to rates normally seen in early October.

As can be seen in the attached table, November rainfall averaged a mere 22% of the long-term mean across the state. Totals ranged from 15% of normal in both the eastern and western Piedmont, to 23% of normal in Northern Virginia. Although the final ranking is not yet available from the National Climatic Data Center, November will likely be around the fifth driest in the 107-year Virginia history.

October was the fourth driest on record. In combination, therefore, it seems very likely that the consecutive nature of these two very dry months will place this October-November as either the driest or second driest in our record. However, the final November numbers will not be in until next week, so it is advisable to wait until then before reporting this in the media.

Percent-of-normal rain figures are less striking when considering the last six months. June-November has averaged 77% of normal rain statewide, ranging from 62% of normal in the western Piedmont to 88% of normal in Tidewater. On a 12-month basis, the state is averaging 81% of normal. The six and 12-month totals reflect the relatively wet early summer and late winter of 2001. For comparative purposes, the smallest 12-month totals in the major 1998-99 drought were 55-65% of normal. Some combined effects of that drought, along with the current one, are evident in very low levels in benchmark wells, such as Tyler in Louisa County. Although that data requires some extrapolation, it does not yet appear to be as low as it would have been in the prolonged and severe drought of the mid-1960's.

In summary, the current drought remains rather short in duration, but very sharp in magnitude. This is reflected in Palmer Drought Severity Index values, which indicate moderate drought in Tidewater, the eastern and western Piedmont, and the Shenandoah Valley/Western Mountain regions. Northern and Southwestern Virginia do not yet register moderate drought on this index, which probably reflects a systematic problem with this index-particularly in the winter, it can be very slow to declare a drought.

As of this writing (December 7), there appears to be an increasing prospect for a moderate statewide rain in the next 60 hours, which would dramatically reduce near-surface dryness and lower the threat of fire.

The current drought is being caused by an unusual extension of subtropical high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. The cause for this phenomenon is unknown, but all the dynamic long-range forecasting models indicate it will tend to persist. Hence, the long-range picture remains disturbingly dry.

	PRECIPITATION SUMMARY		Dec. 7, 2001

CD	DEC-NOV	DEC-NOV	DEC-NOV	DEC-NOV
	2000-2001	NORMAL	DEPARTURE	% DEPART.
1	35.9	43.7	-7.8	82%
2	33.2	43.3	-10.1	77%
3	32.6	44.8	-12.2	73%
4	36.3	40.8	-4.5	89%
5	30.7	39.4	-8.7	78%
6	36.8	43.3	-6.5	85%
Statewide	34.3	42.4	-8.1	81%


CD	JUN-NOV	JUN-NOV	JUN-NOV	JUN-NOV
	2001	NORMAL	DEPARTURE	% DEPART.
1	19.9	22.6	-2.7	88%
2	15.9	22.6	-6.7	70%
3	14.5	23.4	-8.9	62%
4	18.2	22.0	-3.8	83%
5	14.6	21.2	-6.6	69%
6	18.4	22.1	-3.7	83%
Statewide	17.0	22.1	-5.1	77%


CD	SEP-NOV	SEP-NOV	SEP-NOV	SEP-NOV
	2001	NORMAL	DEPARTURE	% DEPART.
1	5.0	10.1	-5.1	50%
2	2.8	10.6	-7.8	26%
3	3.9	11.1	-7.2	35%
4	3.7	10.6	-6.9	35%
5	3.5	10.3	-6.8	34%
6	3.8	10.2	-6.4	37%
Statewide	3.8	9.2	-5.4	41%


CD	OCT-NOV	OCT-NOV	OCT-NOV	OCT-NOV
	2001	NORMAL	DEPARTURE	% DEPART.
1	1.6	6.3	-4.7	26%
2	1.0	7.2	-6.2	14%
3	1.6	7.4	-5.8	22%
4	1.6	7.1	-5.5	23%
5	1.6	6.9	-5.3	23%
6	1.7	6.7	-5.0	25%
Statewide	1.5	5.8	-4.3	26%


CD	NOV	NOV	NOV	NOV
	2001	NORMAL	DEPARTURE	% DEPART.
1	0.6	3.1	-2.5	19%
2	0.5	3.4	-2.9	15%
3	0.5	3.4	-2.9	15%
4	0.8	3.5	-2.7	23%
5	0.6	3.2	-2.6	19%
6	0.7	3.2	-2.5	22%
Statewide	0.6	2.7	-2.1	22%

PROVISIONAL ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN VIRGINIA, December 06, 2001

Recent lack of precipitation has caused streamflow across the State to decline well below the normal range for December. Streamflows are below the normal range in every major basin within the State and new record lows for December are being observed at gages in the York, James, and Roanoke River Basins.

During the fall months, ET (evaporation and transpiration) and precipitation normally are low. Streamflows usually decline to their lowest levels in September or October with a slight increase in flow in November and December. Therefore, the normal range of flow for November and December is greater than the normal range of flow for September and October. Because streamflows have remained fairly constant and the normal range of flows has increased, current streamflows are statistically lower than they were in November, even though the flows are very similar.

Data are provisional and subject to revision. Streamflow values are in cubic feet per second (cfs). The normal range of flow is defined as flows between those equaled or exceeded 75% of the time and those equaled or exceeded 25% of the time on the flow duration curve. A flow duration curve shows the percentage of time a particular flow occurred during the available period of record. The last column in the table relates the current flow to the monthly flow duration curve for that site. At the South River near Waynesboro, for example, current (Dec. 06) flow of 29 cfs has been equaled or exceeded 95% of the time in November.

	HISTORICAL CONDITIONS (FOR AVAILABLE PERIOD OF RECORD)				CURRENT CONDITIONS (DEC. 06, 2001)
	MINIMUM DAILY MEAN FLOW(cfs)	MINIMUM DAILY MEAN FLOW FOR DEC. (cfs)	NORMAL RANGE OF FLOW FOR DEC. (cfs)	MEDIAN FLOW FOR DEC. (cfs)	FLOW (cfs)	FLOW DURATION (% OF TIME CURRENT FLOW EQUALED OR EXCEEDED)
SHENANDOAH RIVER BASIN
South River near Waynesboro, Va.	17	23	53-157	101	29	95
South Fork Shenandoah River at Front Royal, Va.	107	162	547-1,596	1,010	284	>95
North Fork Shenandoah River at Cootes Store, Va.	0.2	2.9	28-171	75	10	85
North Fork Shenandoah River near Strasburg, Va.	35	50	170-572	312	93	95

POTOMAC RIVER BASIN
Goose Creek near Leesburg, Va.	0.4	4.6	73-355	174	28	93

RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER BASIN
Rappahannock River at Remington, Va.	2.9	35	265-812	466	117	95
Rapidan River near Culpeper, Va.	2.2	20	218-615	379	80	>95

YORK RIVER BASIN
Pamunkey River near Hanover, Va.*	47	105	399-1,167	673	95	>95
Mattaponi River near Beulahville, Va.	.78	52	281-762	449	55	>95
JAMES RIVER BASIN
Jackson River near Bacova, Va.	13	20	61-184	106	16	>95
Potts Creek near Covington, Va.	15	15	52-181	100	32	90
Cowpasture River near Clifton Forge, Va.	40	60	171-566	305	70	>95
Craig Creek at Parr, Va.	25	35	105-416	220	53	95
James River at Buchanan, Va.*	257	316	731-2,623	1,400	453	87
Maury River near Buena Vista, Va.	22	70	216-734	395	62	>95
Hardware River below Briery Run near Scottsville, Va	0.1	18	52-134	88	15	>95
Rivanna River at Palmyra, Va.	5.2	67	295-787	482	70	>95
James River at Cartersville, Va.	330	835	2,747-7,732	4,693	815	>95
Appomattox River at Farmville, Va.	6.3	29	127-296	189	46	>95
Appomattox River at Mattoax, Va.	13	72	281-739	439	133	>95
Chickahominy River near Providence Forge, Va.	0.07	21	126-348	214	11	>95

CHOWAN RIVER BASIN
Nottoway River near Sebrell, Va.	14	64	461-1,686	882	85	>95
Blackwater River near Franklin, Va.	0.07	0.1	211-860	455	7.8	>95
Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Va.	4.2	36	164-466	279	46	>95

ROANOKE RIVER BASIN
Roanoke River at Roanoke, Va.*	19	35	114-360	205	62	>95
Pigg River near Sandy Level, Va.	25	86	200-363	262	94	>95
Roanoke River at Randolph, Va.*	179	441	1,362-3,128	1,962	642	>95
Dan River at Paces, Va.	244	640	1,389-2,876	1,968	631	>95
Hyco River near Denniston, Va.*	2.5	8.4	39-202	94	11	>95

KANAWHA RIVER BASIN
New River at Allisonia, Va.	453	600	1,576-3,443	2,353	813	>95
Little River at Graysontown, Va.	47	66	182-371	265	88	>95
Walker Creek at Bane, Va.	24	25	80-354	156	41	95

BIG SANDY RIVER BASIN
Russell Fork at Haysi, Va.	0.2	1.8	54-336	144	38	83

TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN
South Fork Holston River near Damascus, Va.	40	40	184-565	312	82	>95
North Fork Holston River near Saltville, Va.	2.0	20	84-345	177	40	95
Clinch River at Cleveland, Va.	37	40	192-886	438	98	90
Powell River near Jonesville, Va.	18	25	132-712	324	68	90

PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

Southeast Virginia Field Office (SEVFO)

Waterworks	PWSID	Restrictions?	Situation
Newport News	3700500	No	As of 11/27, reservoirs were 76% full, *dropping* 0.3% per day. When reservoirs drop to 70%, will increase groundwater RO plant from 2.0 to 6.0 mgd. No current plans to start conservation measures.
Williamsburg	3830850	No	As of 11/29, Waller Mill reservoir is 44½ *(steady*)inches below full (normal level is about 20 inches below full). Purchasing 2 mgd of raw water from Newport News. No current plans to start conservation measures.
Ft. Monroe	3650150	No	As of 11/29, the system is holding 446 MG in the combined upper and lower Big Bethel reservoirs, with 184 MG in the lower reservoir (normal at this time of year is 199 MG in the lower reservoir). The water plant will be shutting down in mid-December for replacement of valves, and will switch to Newport News water at that time.
James City Service Authority Central System	3095490	No	No significant impact on water levels in wells. The dry conditions are leading to much increased demands.
Virginia-American, Hopewell	3670800	No	No problems with water quantity as yet, but there is an observed increase in TDS and sodium (Na⁺ up to 180 mg/L), as salinity begins to work its way up the James. Complaints from domestic as well as industrial customers about the increased TDS and Na⁺.
Jarratt	3183550	No	On 11/28, the Nottoway River was about 1.5 feet lower than usual. The intake owner (Georga-Pacific) has done some work to make sure that leaves/debris are no longer a problem.
Emporia	3595250	No	As of 11/28, the reservoir is "lower than usual" (amount not cited), although some water is still going over the dam. See discussion in Note 3, below.
Norfolk	3710100	No	As of 12/03, reservoirs are at 74.6% of total capacity (minor improvement). Historic level at this time of year is 80.5% full. Pumping from Nottoway River, but not from Blackwater River. Pumping from Lake Gaston, at rate of 49.9 mgd. Wells are ON. Not currently considering conservation measures, but that could change with continued dry weather.
Portsmouth	3740600	Yes	As of 3 Dec, reservoirs are at "56% of useful capacity". Median capacity for this time of year is 96%, average capacity is 89% (period of 1969-2000). Emergency wells are on, pumping 4.6 mgd. City Council voted to establish *Voluntary Conservation* at meeting of 11/27. The restrictions took effect on 11/30.
Chesapeake - Western Branch system	3550050	Yes	This portion of the city is consecutive to (receives water from) the city of Portsmouth. Because Portsmouth decided to go on voluntary restrictions, Chesapeake has decided to follow Portsmouth's lead, for ALL residents of the city. City Council voted to establish *Voluntary Conservation* at the meeting on 11/27. The restrictions took effect on 11/30.
Chesapeake - South Norfolk system	3550052	Yes	This portion of the city is consecutive to (receives water from) the city of Norfolk. Because Portsmouth decided to go on voluntary restrictions, Chesapeake has decided to follow Portsmouth's lead, for ALL residents of the city. City Council voted to establish *Voluntary Conservation* at the meeting on 11/27. The restrictions took effect on 11/30.
Chesapeake - NW River system	3550051	Yes	Chlorides are increasing in river water, and well water levels have dropped about 20 feet. Neither condition is currently impacting water quantity or quality. Because a portion of the city (a separate system from the NW River system) is served from Portsmouth, Chesapeake has decided to follow Portsmouth's lead, for ALL residents of the city. City Council voted to establish *Voluntary Conservation* at the meeting on 11/27. The restrictions took effect on 11/30.
City of Suffolk central system	3800805	No	As of 11/29, reservoir system is at 94% of capacity, following some slight rains (these reservoirs are so small that it doesn't take much rain to bring their levels up). Are mostly treating well water (EDR plant), and are purchasing finished water from Portsmouth. No drought impacts at this time.
City of Suffolk - Route 17 Corridor	3800787	Yes	This system is consecutive to (purchases water from) the Portsmouth system. As such, this system has followed the lead of the Portsmouth system, and has adopted *Voluntary Conservation*. If Portsmouth goes to Mandatory Conservation, Suffolk will probably switch the supply source to their Central System (groundwater).

Notes:

1. Systems listed for the first time are shown in bold.

2. As of this date, SEVFO has not received any reports of impacts to groundwater systems.

3. While there have been no lasting drought-related impacts to the waterworks at the City of Emporia, there have been impacts at the power plant located immediately across the reservoir from the water plant. When the power plant operates at full capacity, it withdraws sufficient water to cause the water level in the reservoir to drop, to the point where water stops going over the dam. This in turn has an impact on the water plant. The water plant and power plant have a "gentlemen's agreement" that, at such times, the water plant notifies the power plant and the power plant shuts down. This allows the water level in the reservoir to build back up. Currently, the power plant is operating about 10 to 12 hours per day.

CULPEPER FIELD OFFICE

District 8

All surface waters (reservoirs and rivers) are below normal water levels by approximately 1 to 2 feet. No water supply problems or conservation plans in effect at this time.

No groundwater problems known at this time.

District 9

No groundwater or surface water problems known at this time.

District 16

Lake Caroline is 3 feet below normal. Voluntary conservation measures instituted prior to October have been lifted.

Spotsylvania County declared a water emergency in mid November and instituted voluntary conservation. Ni River Reservoir is over 6 feet below normal. Motts Run Reservoir is 11 feet below normal and is releasing water to Rappahannock River for withdrawal by Motts Run WTP.

City of Fredericksburg (consecutive system to Spotsylvania County) has asked for voluntary conservation based on Spotsylvania County's action.

Stafford County has asked residents to voluntarily conserve water. Smith Lake is 8 feet below normal and Abel Lake is over 4 feet below normal.

No groundwater problems known at this time.

LEXINGTON FIELD OFFICE

The drought situation in PD10 has improved some since our last report.

The reservoir levels in Charlottesville /Albemarle County are at 72% -this is up from the 69% previous report. Their main reservoir – South Rivanna - is only 6 inches below the overflow and rising. The Sugar Hollow reservoir remains essentially at zero but remember that the Ragged Mountain reservoir is in good shape.

In Schuyler the Johnson's Branch flow has improved since our last report. While not back to normal flows there is ample water to meet daily demands.

The Fluvanna Correctional Center is still unable to withdraw raw water from Mechunk Creek. Their raw water storage impoundment has approximately 80 days of available water remaining.

The drought report for PD 6 is below and essentially unchanged.

Craigsville- spring production off - well production off - pursuing emergency construction to connect to Augusta Springs- plans and specifications for 6700 feet of interconnecting water line have been approved, and bids received.

Monterey - well production off - plans under review for a new well, comments provided

Coles Run - reservoir level down 5-6 feet - no impact on system due to multiple sources.

Staunton - Middle River flow reduced

DANVILLE FIELD OFFICE

In general, the drought is continuing but there appears to be a slight improvement from earlier this fall possible due to less evaporation and transpiration.

PD11

City of Lynchburg - Pedlar Reservoir is up somewhat, but still about 179" down. City is drawing about 5 MGD from the reservoir and about 7MGD from the James River. Will draw a larger percentage from the river if/when the reservoir reaches 190" down.

Town of Amherst - Buffalo River still has a slight overflow, somewhat better with the recent rain.

Amherst Co. Service Authority - Graham Creek Res. is full and Harris creek is up - currently drawing from creek.

City of Bedford - City is drawing entirely from Stoney Creek Reservoir and still has a 1/2" overflow - were previously using Otter River and wells to keep reservoir full and will do so again if reservoir drops significantly.

Eagle Eyrie - reservoir is as low as anyone there has ever seen it, but they are still drawing from their upper intake level, so they are OK.

Town of Brookneal - Phelps Creek Reservoir is down slightly, but they are in good shape.

CCUSA - Otter River rose 10'' with the recent rain and is now only 16" down.

High Point Subdivision - Smith Mountain Lake is up a little, but still at least 5 feet low. There is still plenty of depth at the intake, however.

Town of Altavista - The Staunton River level is OK but Reed Creek is still low.

PD12A

Town of Rocky Mount - still have an overflow at the check dam but the river is down, recent rains have brought the level up slightly. Demand is down and expected to remain that way through the beginning of next year. Based on USGS flow data the mean discharge has increased approx. 8 cfs since the last drought report.

City of Danville - levels in the Dan River appear to have recoveredslightly. The level above the Schofield Dam has recovered to the point that there is almost an overflow over the Dam. These levels are highly variable based on upstream releases.

Town of Gretna - reservoir is full.

Town of Chatham - reservoir is down but there is still an overflow at the check dam in Cherrystone Creek.

PD12B

City of Martinsville - reservoir down 5.5 feet.

Marrowbone Cr. WTP- flow over check dam is 2" which is pretty good considering.

Stuart - no problems but previously operator indicated stream flow as low as he has seen.

PD13

There is no problems from surface systems in PD-13. Great Creek Reservoir is hold its level. Kerr Lake still has some water for Clarksville. The rivers are low but flowing adequately.

PD14

Crewe, Town of - PWSID 5135160, the reservoir is still 19-inches below. Stagnant conditions and a periodic cold snaps have resulted in high raw water iron and manganese concentrations. However more mixing has caused both levels to drop in the raw water and they are again meeting the SMCLs. I have previously estimated that at 22-inches below the spillway the reservoir may have a 60 day supply left. The Town is still requesting that people voluntarily conserve water and closed car washes. I sent the Town Manager the section form the Code of Virginia that covers emergency ordinances. They also requested advice on how to stop a private citizen from pumping water to fill an ornamental pond. We suggested they consult with their attorney.

Buckingham County Waterworks - PWSID 5029085, the reservoir is about 14.5-inches below the spillway. This is slightly higher(+0.25 inches since the last report. The operator previously sent letters to schools and prisons asking them to conserve water and had a radio announcement. He continues to experience shortened filter run times (~8 hours).

Victoria, Town of - PWSID 5111800, the operators are now switching back an forth between 2 water sources to avoid dropping either sources level too much. They just switched back to Nottoway falls which has an overflow of the dam.

Kenbridge, Town of - PWSID 5111450, No changes; the off-stream impoundment is still 2 to 3 feet below full pond and the smaller raw water pump is being used all day now due to low stream flow and to maintain the reservoir pool at a constant level. The plant operates ~6.5 hours per day at ~482 gpm.

Amelia Academy - PWSID 5007030, This NTNC system reported to me that their bored well has gone dry twice in October. It has not reoccurred. They submitted plans for a new drilled well (drilled a year ago) but they were returned for scope and detail. We have 9 good bactis collected 15 minutes apart and good chemical analyses and a yield and drawdown test but no drilling log. If need arises we will need to let them connect it under emergency conditions provided we get the drilling log. It may require them to collect the necessary series of 20 bactis one hour apart later. They have continuous disinfection.

EAST CENTRAL FIELD OFFICE

Swift Creek WTP - The reservoir level is currently 3.4 feet below the top of the dam. This means that it is 3 inches lower than it was when I called on November 7th. Although the rainfall last weekend was small (0.1 inches total), it has helped maintain the groundwater levels, which has resulted in a slower rate of depletion of the reservoir. The WTP output is still being held to a maximum of 6.0 MGD, which is one-half of its treatment capacity.

Appomattox River Water Authority - The reservoir level is currently 10 inches below the top of the dam. This means that it is 2 inches higher than it was when I called on November 7th. There are no drought related restrictions on the production of the WTP.

James River Correctional Center - The water level in Beaverdam Creek is currently 2 inches above the dam. This means that it is 1.5 inches higher than when I called on November 7th. Water conservation is still being practiced to some degree. The WTP production was 0.808 MGD on November 27th.

Pagebrook - Sydnor is still having water hauled every Monday and Friday. This is the same rate of hauling as when I called on November 7th. This is the only Sydnor waterworks in my area that water is being hauled to.

Gloucester- The Beaverdam Reservoir water elevation was 40.13 on 11-28-2001 when the overflow is 40.5. Therefore, the water level is about 4.5 inches below the overflow level. Note that about a million gallons of water is allowed to flow through the reservoir every day.

City of Richmond - The James River is still low, but Richmond is having no problems with water withdrawals. We are not aware of any use restrictions in place in the Richmond area. The recent rains may reduce demand somewhat.

ABINGDON FIELD OFFICE

The only foreseeable problems are in Planning District 1.The reservoirs in Wise Co. are below the full levels and are dropping. However, the levels are better than they were in each of the previous 3 years.

Appalachia-200 days left, no alternate source in use, no conservation measures.

Big Stone Gap-138 days left, have an alternate source that is not in use, no conservation measures

Wise- 225 days left, no alternate source in use, no conservation measures.

COUNTY

SYSTEM

SOURCE

FEET DOWN FROM OVERFLOW

MILLION GALLONS LEFT

DAYS LEFT

ALTERNATE SOURCE(S)

CONSERVATION MEASURES

COMMENTS

DOES SOURCE CAPACITY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED? Y or N

Wise

Town of Wise

Reservoir

6'7"

146.5

225

Bear Creek

None

7.5

137

210

Bear Creek

None

7'9"

134

206

Bear Creek

None

Wise

Town of Big Stone Gap

upper reservoir

44"

well

new well not being used

lower

44"

275.35

138

upper reservoir

55"

lower

55"

225

113

upper reservoir

56"

None

lower

56"

223

112

None

Wise

Town of Appalachia

reservoir

3'1.5"

200

None

185

None

4'3"

184

None

City of Norton

Norton

upper

11.5'

37.7

Wise County PSA

lower

14.7'

upper

Wise County PSA

None

lower

14'10"

None

Pulaski

Town of Pulaski

Hogans

3.5

>90

Pulaski Co. PSA

Gatewood

>90

Pulaski Co. PSA

Hogans

3.5

>90

Pulaski Co. PSA

Gatewood

>90

Pulaski Co. PSA

None

VIRGINIA AGRICULTURAL SITUATION

While it is never a good time to have excessively dry weather, the dryness that much of Virginia has experienced this fall has provided favorable conditions for farmers to harvest their field crops while not reducing significantly the final yields. However, as the dry weather persists, the drought is taking a toll of Virginia agriculture. Farmers are electing not to do any additional seeding this fall after experiencing low seed germination because of the lack of sufficient rain. Livestock producers have seen their water supplies and pastures diminished by the lack of precipitation since August.

Some farmers in localities affected by the prolonged dry weather are seeking assistance through programs of the United States Department of Agriculture to drill wells to replace their dwindling water supplies. In addition, some farmers are deciding to sell their livestock earlier because of the dry weather. Because of worsening pasture conditions, some farmers have had to begin putting their cattle on feed earlier than usual.

In early December Prince Edward County submitted a drought disaster designation request to the Commonwealth of Virginia citing agricultural losses caused by dry weather. On behalf of Governor Gilmore, USDA has been asked to prepare a damage assessment report on Prince Edward County's situation for consideration by the Governor. Earlier in the fall Goochland County submitted a similar disaster designation request which has been processed.

VIRGINIA CROP SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 25, 2001

(This is the last report the Virginia Agricultural Statistics Service released for calendar year 2001.)

Scattered rainfall over the weekend helped to improve the dry soil conditions throughout the Commonwealth. Significant rainfall is still needed to recharge soil moisture levels. Days suitable for fieldwork were 6.1. Lack of rain is hindering the planting of small grains.

TOPSOIL MOISTURE PERCENT

Week Ending	Very Short	Short	Adequate	Surplus
November 25	69	31	0	0
November 18	78	21	1	0
November 11	68	29	3	0
November 4	54	41	5	0
October 28	42	47	11	0

CROP CONDITION PERCENT

Crop	Very Poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Pastures	63	34	3	0	0
Livestock	6	10	28	31	25
Small Grain and Winter Grazing Crops	28	48	21	3	0

CROP PROGRESS PERCENT - WITH COMPARISONS

Crop	This Week	Last Week	Last Year	5 Year Average
Winter Wheat Seeded	83	77	85	82
Cotton Harvested	95	89	83	81
Beef Cattle Forage % from Pastures	19	39	NA	NA
Milk Cow Forage % from Pastures	5	9	NA	NA
Sheep Forage % from Pastures	17	48	NA	NA

Farm Service Agency

Will relay the counties that have submitted Flash Reports in regard to the drought situation:

Augusta, Highland, Amelia, Chesterfield, Powhatan.

Have reported very limited to no planting of fall crops.

Damage Assessment Report (DAR) has been completed and submitted for a disaster declaration on Goochland County. A DAR has been requested by the Governor's office for Prince Edward County on Dec. 4. We have been starting to have producer requesting Emergency Conservation Program (ECP) for drilling wells for livestock, this has been mainly in the valley.

FOREST FIRE SITUATION IN VIRGINIA - DECEMBER 2, 2001

Recent rains and the continued vigilance of the citizen of the Commonwealth have helped keep the fire activity to a minimum during the past week. The BURNING BAN CONTINUES to be a major factor in the reduction of fire starts and will remain in effect until the Department of Forestry feels confident that outdoor burning can once again be allowed without placing lives and property at danger.

National Drought Summary -- December 4, 2001

The East: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation (0.5" to 2.0") fell on many areas of the Northeast and New England west of the I-95 corridor, prompting spotty reductions in drought and dryness classifications. In addition, former D0 conditions in central and northeast Pennsylvania, where some of the heavier precipitation fell, were reclassified D0(W) in deference to improved streamflows and the elimination of 30-day precipitation shortages. Farther south, moderate precipitation brushed the southern Appalachians and the western fringes of the dry region, but most areas received only scattered totals of 0.3" or less. Despite recent precipitation in parts of the East, including 2 consecutive relatively wet weeks in central and northern sections, many areas remained 4 or more inches below normal for the last 90 days, with deficits reaching 7 to 10 inches across the southern half of Virginia and parts of adjacent North Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The continuing dryness led to a deterioration from D0 to D1 in the west-central Appalachians, from D1 to D2 in central and southern Virginia, and from D2 to D3 in a swath covering the central Carolinas (where year-to-date precipitation totals are 1' to 1½’ below normal). Along the Eastern Seaboard and the Deep South (the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and South Atlantic-Gulf hydrologic service regions), 44% of all streamflow sites reported flows below their respective 10th percentile thresholds for December 4, up from 35% one week prior but below the recent peak of 60% reported November 23 and 24, according to the U. S. Geological Survey. Not surprisingly, November streamflow volume into the Chesapeake Bay was the lowest of any November since records began in 1937. Going a bit deeper, groundwater levels are also very low in some areas. In late November, the Washington County, MD site reported groundwater depth at its lowest since November 1986, and among the lowest 1.5% of their 3900 observations since April 1970. Farther north, New London County, CT was at its lowest since July 1991, and was among the lowest 4% of their 2065 observations made since May 1958. Most sites were not as unusually low as these 2 locations, but a majority were significantly below normal.

USGS--Water Resources of Virginia

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URL://va.water.usgs.gov/drought/dsr_12-07-01.htm Last modified: 02/25/02 02:17:32 PM

PROVISIONAL ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN VIRGINIA, December 06, 2001

PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

CULPEPER FIELD OFFICE

LEXINGTON FIELD OFFICE

DANVILLE FIELD OFFICE

ABINGDON FIELD OFFICE

Farm Service Agency